Back when we asked our 5 Intriguing Questions for the new F1 season, we didn’t really have any hard data to play with. Now, after two official pre-season test sessions, we’re ready to draw some tough conclusions.
When Lewis Hamilton clinched his second Driver’s Championship title last year in Abu Dhabi, we weren’t as surprised by the way Mercedes dominated the season, as we were by how close the title fight turned out to be.
This year, Hamilton vs. Rosberg has the makings of a Schumacher vs. Hakkinen, Pacquiao vs. Mayweather, Ronaldo vs. Messi. Two rear-wheel driven apex predators at the helm of what looks like another dominant Mercedes AMG Petronas machine.
Maybe watching them battle it out on the track will make up for the fact that we won’t see any other real challenger to the title.
Or will we?
It’s still too early to tell, unfortunately. Believe it or not, after so many pre-season tests, so many dry laps, wet laps, slow laps, quick laps, we won’t know as much as we’ll know on Saturday during the first official qualifying session in Melbourne.
That’s where everybody is going to have to give it all they got, without any reason to hold back. You have to push, and by doing so, you show your hand. Both to the world as well as to your fellow drivers.
Now, without being too conservative, here’s a rundown of what we saw during pre-season testing from both drivers as well as their cars, and how we think the season will end as far as the constructors’ title is concerned.
1. Mercedes AMG Petronas
Rival teams were accusing them of not showing their hand during testing, not showing their true speed, and for a second there, we almost thought it was just good old fashioned media relations. As it turns out, Mercedes showed unrivaled pace on day 2 of final tests in Barcelona when Nico Rosberg went around the track in just 1:22:792s, aided by Pirelli’s soft compound.
It completely eclipsed the way Ferrari dominated in Jerez. It took our minds off of the interesting CamoBull and it certainly made us forget for a while that other teams were showing signs of improvement or even new life (good job, Lotus).
The sleek new W06 Hybrid certainly has enough performance to either help Lewis to another title, or help Nico get his first. Speaking of which..
We shared our thoughts of this issue before, saying that Rosberg has shown great motivation this off-season in his battle against his teammate. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the German driver notch his first title in 2015. And of course, betting on Mercedes to come out on top is as close to a sure thing as there is in Formula 1.
2. Williams Martini Racing
Yes, we have Williams coming in second after Mercedes despite the fact that they weren’t as quick as Ferrari this winter. What they were though, was steady. Just like last season. Steady, reliable, fast in a straight line, plus they have two excellent drivers.
The FW35 has better traction and aerodynamics than last years’ FW34, while retaining those low-drag characteristics that made Bottas and Massa so tough to outrace in 2014.
Also, despite the fact that Red Bull finished 2nd last year, Williams were by far the better team. The only reason why Red Bull took 2nd place was having both Daniel Ricciardo and Sebastian Vettel on the same team. This year Vettel is gone and in came Daniil Kvyat. Good luck holding back both Bottas and Massa with only one proven driver.
Speaking of Bottas, in our eyes, he’s one of F1’s brightest stars at the moment. It’s got to be between him and Ricciardo. The future is very, very bright with these two.
3. Scuderia Ferrari
We’re sure Ferrari would like to forget all about 2014. It wasn’t their best year, not by a long shot. What they’ll focus on instead is the tremendous pace they showed in Jerez and overall improvement.
Every other team is now expecting them to challenge at the end of races and so are we. Kimi has already praised the SF15-T’s front end dynamics, which means we can expect him to give Vettel much more of a fight than he gave Alonso last season.
It’s hard to say which of them will finish ahead of the other, but having two consistently fast cars will mean plenty more of constructors’ points for the red team.
Rosberg is on record saying Ferrari have been the most improved team so far, while Williams were all but matched in pre-season testing by Ferrari on supersofts.
We expect both a good season out of both Vettel and Raikkonen, which is why we’re predicting they’re going to finish ahead of Red Bull, which will be relying heavily on just one experienced driver.
4. Red Bull Racing
Bring back the CamoBull, come on guys! No? Oh well, the car still looks good, both aesthetically as well as performance-wise.
What Red Bull has is not something you can develop during one winter. They have a winning culture, which you only get after a couple of seasons of being at the very top. It’s never wise to bet against teams with winning cultures, especially since they haven’t really shown any signs of being slow during testing.
In fact, Ricciardo was fastest in Barcelona during Day 2 of the first weekend, and lapped the track 143 times, which showed both pace as well as reliability.
We think they’ll be fine, in fact, they’ve shown this winter they’re not necessarily slower than Williams and Ferrari, but as we’ve pointed out, they’re racing with one hand tied behind their back. Ricciardo is an amazing talent, which is why it’s so hard to pinpoint exactly where Red Bull will finish the season. They’ll have to take whatever Kvyat can give them as far as points on the grid.
But we’re not expecting him to score more points than Bottas, Massa, Vettel or Raikkonen. So 4th it is. Ouch.
5. Lotus F1 Team
Lotus is officially our ‘Dark Horse’ team. Both Romain Grosjean and Pastor Maldonado are fast and experienced drivers and the car has improved massively thanks to their new Mercedes engines.
We’re being conservative predicting them to finish 5th in the Constructors’ championship, but we wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them finish ahead of any of the other three teams not named Mercedes. OK, we would be surprised if they somehow finished the season ahead of Williams and Ferrari. That’s a lot of star power to beat.
But Red Bull’s position is up for the taking. Also, don’t sleep on Grosjean, as he’s shown great promise in previous seasons and we feel he still hasn’t reached his full potential.
In 2013 he finished 7th behind Vettel, Alonso, Webber, Hamilton, Raikkonen and Rosberg, and it was just his 2nd year in Formula One.
His teammate, Pastor Maldonado was also quickest in Barcelona on Day 1, with the all-new E23 Hybrid flexing its muscle in front of both Ferrari and Red Bull that afternoon.
6. McLaren-Honda
We have to admit. We’re not sure whether we’re playing this one too safe or being too generous with the “injury riddled” McLarens.
On one hand, they were absolutely abysmal during pre-season, with only a few good laps even worth mentioning. On the other hand, with both Alonso and Button they might have the best 1-2 punch in Formula 1, aside from Hamilton & Rosberg.
They’re also a complete question mark as far as speed and reliability for the duration of the season, but we certainly don’t expect them to outrace any of the top Mercedes-powered cars.
Still, would it be impossible for them to string together a couple of good results throughout the year? Certainly not. In fact, we kind of expect it. Which is why 5th place seems pretty fair – it’s where they finished last season.
7. Sauber F1 Team
We would have normally went with Force India here, but we’re also having to base these predictions on how teams performed this winter, and Sauber was on fire like Steph Curry from beyond the arc. Well, at least by their standards.
The Ferrari-powered C34 looked both quick as well as reliable at the hands of both Marcus Ericsson and Felipe Nasr – which aren’t as experienced as Force India’s Sergio Perez and Nico Hulkenberg, yes, however, Force India have already stated that they’re expecting to have a rough start to the season with their VJM08 racer being ready so late.
So there you have it. Sauber goes 7th because of Force India’s lack of confidence in themselves. Makes sense right?
8. Sahara Force India
Cool name, cool looking car for 2015, experienced drivers, Mercedes engine. If that doesn’t sound like a recipe for success, we don’t know what does. Oh, yes, except for the fact that they barely got on the track this winter with the car not being ready in time.
It’s hard to predict what’s going to happen with them. But we like both Perez and Hulkenberg, certainly more than any of Sauber’s drivers or even Red Bull’s Kvyat. And no, we’re not hating on Daniil, we just like to reward experience over “getting thrown into the Lion’s den and hoping for the best” types of strategies.
But since we’re talking about Force India here, it serves to remember that they’ve been pretty consistent over the past few seasons. Plus last year both Perez and Hulkenberg finished ahead of Ferrari’s Kimi Raikkonen and McLaren’s Kevin Magnussen.
9. Scuderia Toro Rosso
Speaking of consistent, the STR10 looked pretty good this winter, even though it’s being driven by rookies Max Verstappen and Carlos Sainz Jr.
In fact, Verstappen put together a massive 223 laps during the first Barcelona weekend which speaks volumes for the Renault-powered car. Will they score more than 30 points this year? Tough to say. But that’s what Kvyat and Vergne totaled last season.
Still, there’s no way they finish above 9th since Lotus is definitely not going to bottom out like they did last year.
10. Manor Marussia F1 Team
All we know is that they’ll run in Melbourne with a 2015-legal version of last year’s MR03 racer before their new car will show up.
As for Will Stevens and Roberto Merhi, they’ll be gaining some valuable F1 experience, and with so many other newcomers this year, other driver’s mistakes could even help land them a few points.