The analyst gurus at R. L. Polk & Co have issued a new forecast for global vehicle sales in 2012. The automotive market intelligence firm predicts that sales are expected to rise 6.7 percent over 2011 volumes to 77.7 million vehicles, thanks to the global economy riding out the European debt crisis and consumers returning to showrooms.
However, this does not mean that the European car market will recover. On the contrary, Polk estimates that Europe will be the only region where sales will be flat or slightly down to just over 19 million units due to the tight financial plans enforced by most governments.
On the other end of the spectrum, China is once again expected to record a substantial increase in new vehicle sales compared to last year. Thanks to rising demand in large metropolitan cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, the Chinese new car market will grow by 16 percent over 2011.
The U.S. market will improve, albeit at more moderate rate, mainly because it already recorded a strong performance in 2011. Polk says light vehicle sales will increase by 7.3 percent to 13.7 million units, but the firm does not expect the U.S. to return to the pre-recession heights of more than 16 million units annually before 2015.
The greatest increase is expected in the luxury segment, with more than 14 percent growth, according to Polk.
“More affluent buyers are returning to the market for new vehicles, after three years of spending reductions,” said Anthony Pratt, director of forecasting for the Americas at Polk. “The luxury segment also offers a wide variety of product options for consumers across all segments, ranging from small cars to SUVs,” Pratt added.
Polk sees Toyota and Honda recording the strongest amount of market share growth in the U.S., as they will start recovering from the 2011 catastrophes that seriously hindered their production capabilities. However, Polk notes that it is doubtful if they will win back all the buyers lost to competitors.
VW will also be a strong contender thanks to the Beetle joining the already successful Jetta and Passat. Hyundai and Kia may be expecting a global rise in demand, but Polk sees their U.S. sales remaining flat in 2012 since they will face hard competition in all segments.
As for domestic carmakers, Polk’s forecasting team says GM, Ford and Chrysler will continue their growth in 2012 thanks to new products as well as the recovery of the U.S. economy.
