While the U.S. is still struggling with its acceptance of diesel-powered passenger cars, in Europe and other parts of the world, it has already become the fuel of choice.
However, the diesel engine passenger cars make up only a small portion of all ignition-compression motors currently being used, so the demand for the fuel is only set to grow considerably in the coming decades, and will make up for as much as 70 percent of the growth in demand for all fuels by the year 2040.
The information comes courtesy of a report called Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 (available here), which was put together by ExxonMobil.
It predicts that by the year 2020, diesel will have surpassed gasoline as the number one fuel, driven by both increased demand for diesel-powered passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, as well as heavy-duty vehicles.
Unlike diesel, the demand for gasoline will remain constant even though by 2040 there will be twice as many personally owned vehicles on the road than there are now (1.6 billion). In the meantime, the demand for fuel used in aviation and the marine industry will also go up by 75 percent and 90 percent respectively.
The ExxonMobil report also states that by 2025, hybrids will become more accessible, and that by 2040 they will make up more than 50 percent of all new cars sales. Plug-in hybrids and full EVs will also begin to make their mark, and a projected 10 percent figure of new cars sales is believed to be expected.
In other words, the age when greener means of transportation hit the mainstream is still a good few decades away. Still, the calculations needed to achieve the figures posted above, as clever as they may be, don’t take into account many factors that could drastically change the outcome, so the information should be taken with a grain of salt, pardon the cliché.
By Andrei Nedelea
Story References: ExxonMobil , Autoblgog Green & Greencarcongress
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