Ford is predicting that four-cylinder engines will represent two-thirds of U.S. new-vehicle sales by the end of the decade. Four-cylinder units now make up more than half of the U.S. market but their share will continue to grow as a result of strict federal fuel-efficiency standards – known as Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE).
The Blue Oval‘s estimates are high by some analysts’ accounts, but it’s not the first time Ford has gone its own way when it comes to powertrain-related predictions. Although some analysts believe Ford’s estimate is a little exaggerated, they don’t find it implausible.
In 2008, new vehicles with four-cylinders made up 40 percent of the market, while today they are 53 percent of the new-vehicle market. According to Ford’s estimates, by 2020, 66 percent of all new vehicles will be powered by four-cylinder engines.
Currently, most four-cylinder cars are from the small and midsize segments, including hybrid vehicles. Most compact SUVs also are fitted with inline-four units. However, when it comes to full-size SUVs and pickup trucks, six- and eight-cylinder engines are the primary choices.
According to Raj Nair, Ford’s group vice president of global product development, Ford sees continued four-cylinder engine growth but he gave no clues as to whether large SUVs or pickups could be equipped with the smaller engines in the future. “It’s an increased penetration rate in segments that already have four-cylinder engines,” Nair said.
Given that today’s four-cylinder engines provide similar performance to old-school V6 units, having four-cylinder full-size SUVs and pickups would not be an impossible thing in the future.
By Dan Mihalascu
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