If you’re one of the people who put $1,000 for the Tesla Model 3, there’s a very good chance the reveal party cemented your decision to take Elon Musk up on his electric car for the masses. OK, the masses that tend to buy compact luxury sedans.
To recap Thursday night’s unveil, the Model 3 is claimed to start appearing on roads by the end of 2017. The most basic model will cost $35,000 before government incentives for electric vehicles, will have an EPA-estimated range of 215 miles and go from 0 to 60 mph in about six seconds.
Musk said there would, however, subsequent versions of the Audi A4-sized Model 3 that would deliver more range and more performance – probably evidenced by the three vehicles on the stage in Los Angeles with distinct details.
And I think it looks sharp, a great refinement over the Model S formula to be familiar as a Tesla, but without being a complete copy.
But there are plenty of unanswered questions that we can ponder for the next 18 months or so.
How production ready are the cars we saw?
Musk has said the goal was to show the Model 3 as close to production-ready as possible. So don’t expect the overall shape to change by the time the cars go into normal production. All cars will get that glass roof and it’s expected all cars will have that new interior that lacks a center instrument panel. The Model 3, according to Musk, has a slimmed-down dashboard to allow for better interior packaging, meaning the only place you’re likely to see the speedometer is in that central screen. I wonder how the Department of Transportation is OK with that, but there are many different regulations regarding vital driver information.
But it’s worth throwing out there that all Model 3s are said to come with Autopilot capabilities, which sounds like hinting of much stronger autonomous driving abilities than the current Teslas. A lot could change by the 2018 model year.
What does $35,000 really get you?
Again, 215 miles on a charge and 0-60 in six seconds to start. But both the Model S and Model X offer multiple levels of power and drivetrain configuration, in addition to color, wheel, leather and suspension upgrades. All-wheel drive will be an option, but for how much?
Consider the 2017 Audi A4 starts off at $38,000 with front-wheel drive and a 0-60 time of right around six seconds. Load it up with Quattro and the sport package and fancy speakers and you’re at $55,000. The BMW 328i and Mercedes-Benz C300 can go higher. I’d bet on a nicely equipped Model 3 to follow suit.
When will it really be available?
If you’re just reading this and deciding whether to put your $1,000 reservation in at Tesla, you’re almost certainly not getting your Model 3 in 2017. And at this rate, I’d wonder if you’re going to get it in 2018, either. At this time of writing, there are more than 133,000 reservations for the car. Admittedly, reservations don’t necessarily translate into sales, and there could be numerous orphaned Model 3s in early 2018 that could be snapped up by quick shoppers.
But the delivery time for many customers is important to know because of the government incentives for electric cars that are supposed to eventually sunset. As reported by Wired and other publications, once Tesla sells 200,000 electric vehicles their customers are no longer eligible for a $7,500 tax credit to subsidize the purchase price of the car. Individual states have similar restrictions on their own tax credits. It’s difficult to know for sure, but Tesla is well on its way to that 200,000 mark based on Model S sales, and the amount of Model X sales that could be reached by the end of 2017 mean that customers very far down on the reservation list might be paying far more for a Model 3 by the time their name is called.
How good is the Chevy Bolt?
The Chevy Bolt EV was launched to much fanfare less than three months ago at the Consumer Electronics Show. General Motors beat Tesla to the show stage and will beat it to the showroom with the $30,000, 200-ish miles of range Bolt when it’s expected to go on sale by the end of 2016. That gives the Bolt a year, maybe more, to establish itself as the EV technology you can have today and paint the Tesla Model 3 as niche vehicle.
That said, the Model 3 makes the Bolt look like an absolute dork by comparison. Where the Bolt deals in a somewhat typical shape covering sophisticated technology, the Tesla goes all out to let people know it’s on the cutting edge of finding new ways to design a car. On paper, Tesla is Bernie Sanders to Chevrolet’s Hillary Clinton.
And there’s nothing wrong with that. Electric cars that fit most lifestyles are coming relatively soon. And it’s safe to say many people are excited about them.