The coronavirus continues to spread in the United States as the CDC says there have been 36 deaths and 1,215 confirmed or presumptive positive cases.
The virus has already impacted a number of companies and events, and analysts believe automakers will be hit particularly hard.
As noticed by Reuters, Morgan Stanley expects US auto sales to fall by 9% this year to 15.5 million units. That’s a sizeable drop from the 17.1 million vehicles sold in 2019.
Also Read: China’s Car Sales Fell By A Cliff In February, Down By 92 Percent
While many analysts were predicting a drop of between 1-2% before the outbreak, there are fears the coronavirus could cause consumers to delay new vehicle purchases. That’s entirely possible if the situation in the United States continues to deteriorate as we’ve already seen auto sales plummet in China.
Morgan Stanley isn’t the only one predicting a drop in US auto sales as LMC Automotive lowered its forecast to 16.5 million units this year. That would be a drop of approximately 3.5 percent from 2019.
LMC also expects global auto sales to fall from 90.3 million units in 2019 to 86.4 million in 2020. That’s 3.7 million units less than their original estimates.
Speaking of global sales, new car sales fell 8.8 percent in Italy last month. While that sounds like a big drop, sales were down 5.9 percent in January and European sales were off 7.5% that same month.
While part of the drop in February can be attributed to the coronavirus, we’ll get a better picture of the situation when March sales are released. Needless to say, everyone is expecting a major drop as Italy is effectively under quarantine.
A drop in auto sales could result in layoffs or unscheduled downtime. Automakers have already been making changes as Vauxhall’s Ellesmere Port assembly plant in the United Kingdom will drop to a four-day work week, while SEAT’s Barcelona factory dropped a shift.
