Analysis by Bloomberg has revealed that electric vehicles now make up five percent of new car sales in the United States, and that’s an important tipping point for the market.
If the U.S. follows trends set by other countries around the world, adoption rates should accelerate quickly now. The analysis suggests that technological preferences will rapidly flip and that EVs are on their way to mass adoption.
That’s the path taken by China and Europe, which have already hit the crucial five percent mark. Bloomberg looked at trends in 18 countries, and it suggests that a quarter of all new car sales will be electric in the U.S. by the end of 2025, which is almost two years ahead of most major forecasts.
The majority of new technologies follow an S-shaped adoption curve. Sales are slow at first, as only early adopters are willing to deal with the inconveniences of a new technology. Then, a switch flips and suddenly nearly everyone buys in to the new tech – this was the path followed by the internet, smartphones, TV, LED lightbulbs, and countless others.
For EVs, in particular, the reasons for this are clear. The technology requires a lot of infrastructure to operate, and that made EVs less convenient than internal combustion vehicles at first. As more and more people adopt the technology, though, the infrastructure becomes more robust and, according to the analysis, five percent seems to be the point at which mainstream buyers opt in to the EV market and overtake early adopters.
Adoption also depends on supply, and it turns out that automakers (traditional ones, at least) have a tipping point, too. In Europe, once 10 percent of an automaker’s quarterly sales go electric, it only takes two years for the share of EVs to triple.
Government incentives and support have also been a necessary factor in every country that has crossed the EV tipping point. Under President Joe Biden, the U.S. has made large strides towards electrification, with the administration calling for EVs (including plug-in hybrids) to make up half of new vehicles by 2030.
