Six months ago the news was dominated by stories suggesting combustion cars would be pretty much extinct across large parts of the world 15 years from now. The EU and California were poised to impose zero-emissions limits from 2035 and other states were getting ready to follow suit.
But now the cracks are beginning to appear. Germany and Italy are threatening to derail Europe’s ICE ban unless concessions are made for synthetic fuels that could keep the combustion engine alive, and now it emerged that more than half of auto industry experts surveyed think the mass switch to electric vehicles is unachievable within regulatory timelines anyway.
Research joints carried out by ABB Robotics and Automotive Manufacturing Solutions found that 59 percent of respondents doubted that the switch to EVs was possible within the timeframe specified by lawmakers. Reasons given included the challenges the auto industry faced adapting to a new battery supply chain, concerns over high levels of capital investment required, shortages of raw materials and a lack of grid capacity and charging infrastructure.
Of those worries, the lack of charging infrastructure was cited as the single biggest bottleneck, with 26 percent of those surveyed ranking it as the main barrier to EV take-up, while 17 percent suggested the high price of EVs was a problem.
Related: Porsche, Ferrari Behind e-Fuel Debate That Could Derail 2035 EU ICE Ban
The almost 600 survey participants included experts working directly for carmakers, plus suppliers, engineers and managers employed in the auto industry. Only 11 percent believed that all regional targets for EV adoption by 2030-40 were realistic, while a glass-half-empty 18 percent claimed that the present targets would never be met.
The study also asked those same experts whether they believed the auto industry could deliver sustainable manufacturing and the results were rather more positive, only 4 percent suggesting it wouldn’t be possible, but almost one quarter saying the costs to manufacturers was a challenge.
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