- Chinese automakers will improve their global market share from 21% to 31% by 2030, analysts predict.
- Study by AlixPartners suggests China will control 12% of European market and 72% of its domestic market by the end of the decade.
- Faster development times and lower production costs give Chinese brands an advantage over other nations’ automakers.
One in every three cars sold in the world in 2030 will be built by a Chinese automaker. That’s the shocking new prediction from industry experts who have been studying China’s growth curve.
Chinese cars already account for a significant 21 percent of the market, but analysts expect the nation’s industry to expand rapidly. Some of the growth will come in China at the expense of Western brands, domestic brands improving their share from 59 to 72 percent.
Related: Canada Mulls Tariffs On Chinese-Made EVs, But The Only One You Can Buy Is A Tesla
But even more worryingly for those same Western brands, most of the additional sales will come from beyond China’s borders. AlixPartners thinks Chinese automaker sales made outside of China will explode from 3 million in 2024 to 9 million by the end of the decade.
Though new 100 percent tariffs introduced by the Biden Administration will limit China’s ability to push into North America, and Japan will also prove hard to crack, the study predicts Chinese automakers will have doubled their share of the European car market to 12 percent by 2030 and increased their 33 percent share of the Russian market to 69 percent.
Middle East and Africa sales are expected to grow from 8 to 39 percent and deliveries in Central and South America could rise from 7 to 28 percent, CNBC reports.
China’s Market Share
The higher margins enjoyed by Chinese automakers and their aggressive pricing strategies are well known, but analysts have identified other important advantages. These include development times that are half those of Western carmakers and China’s ability to refresh its model lineups more frequently as a result.
“Chinese brands put a higher value on features customers can actually experience, such as design and in-cabin tech; they are ruthlessly focused on maintaining their cost advantage even as they build factories abroad; and they have built a considerable lead in emerging technologies – including battery production,” says AlixPartners’ Andrew Bergbaum.
“Those capabilities have captivated China and will eventually define the global marketplace,” he added.
