- European firms could face fines of up to €15 billion ($15.5 billion) if they don’t meet the new, stricter targets.
- Stellantis, Ford, Mazda, Subaru, Leapmotor and Toyota will pool emissions with Tesla to comply with EU’s regulations.
- The sale of carbon credits accounted for roughly 3% of Tesla’s $72 billion in revenue during Q1-Q3 2024.
A group of the world’s largest car manufacturers want to pool their European Union emissions with Tesla this year to avoid massive fines. This year, overall fleet emissions in the bloc will need to fall from 106.6 grams of CO2 per kilometer traveled down to 93.6 grams, and individual car manufacturers have specific targets they must hit.
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According to documents released by the EU Commission, Toyota, Ford, Mazda, Stellantis, Subaru and Leapmotor intend to create a ‘Superpool’ with Tesla. These brands account for a combined 33% of the total vehicle market and a 30% share of the total EV market in Europe.
Tesla’s Carbon Credits Will Help, But It’s Not a Silver Bullet
“Considering 2024 sales, the Tesla pool significantly narrows the emissions gap for automakers within the group, bringing them to within just 4g of the target,” Automotive Research Lead at Rho Motion, Will Roberts, said.
However, Roberts cautioned that the math isn’t entirely in their favor. “Despite the weight of the world’s largest BEV manufacturer, this does not guarantee fines are avoided by this pool. Tesla has sold fewer vehicles in 2024 than 2023, and a continuation of that trend would not be helpful. Furthermore, Toyota, Subaru and Mazda have all been slower to get BEVs on the road and with Toyota alone selling three times more vehicles than Tesla, the offset effect only goes so far.”
These aren’t the only car companies to have created a pool. Mercedes-Benz’s group emissions were 17.3g above its target in 2024, and it was facing €1 billion in fines. For 2025, Mercedes and Smart will pool with Volvo and Polestar. The four firms have an 8% share of the market and a 20% share of the EV market.
Other Major Automakers Are Holding Out
Several of the world’s largest automakers have yet to announce pooling for 2025, despite every one of them currently being above the required targets for this year. These include Honda, VW, Kia, BMW, SAIC, Hyundai, Suzuki, and Renault Nissan Mitsubishi.
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Pooling essentially works like this: automakers purchase emissions credits from other brands to lower their fleet averages. Tesla, as the industry’s reigning king of emissions credits, is cashing in big time. According to Reuters, nearly 3% of Tesla’s $72 billion in revenue from the first nine months of 2024 came from selling carbon credits.
And that’s just the beginning. UBS analysts led by Patrick Hummel estimate that Tesla’s compensation could exceed €1 billion in Europe alone this year if it monetizes its entire emissions credit surplus, as reported by Bloomberg.
The former chair of the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association and current Renault chief executive Luca De Meo has previously said that European car brands are starring down up to €15 billion in fines if they don’t meet 2025 targets.
