To say that Fiat is in a crisis would probably be the understatement of the (last) year. Just a couple of weeks ago, the Italian group lowered its sales target for 2012 by half a million units, from 2.7 to 2.2 million. Even its CEO, Sergio Marchionne, has admitted that the European car market will drop in 2012.
Yet, the man who masterminded Chrysler’s acquisition during the 2009 bailout and merged the two groups into one entity wants them to sell more than six million vehicles a year by 2014. By doing so, he might have set the bar too high.
At least that’s the forecast from 10 analysts who were surveyed by Bloomberg News. None of them expects the group to attain Marchionne’s goal, and their average projection for 2014 amounts to 4.9 million sales, or 1 million less than Marchionne’s target.
They also say that his goal of €104 billion (US$136 billion) in annual revenue by 2014 is more than optimistic, predicting that it will fall €16 billion short.
Maybe there is a way, though, for those numbers to be achieved – but it’s not an easy one.
“Marchionne’s ambition for 2014 is unrealistic without an acquisition, which Fiat can’t afford as it completes the Chrysler deal”, said Hans-Peter Wodniok from Fairesearch GmbH.
Giuseppe Berta, an economic history professor at Milan’s Bocconi University, believes that the six-million goal is “more a slogan than a real target”. He also agrees that the only way it can be achieved is through an acquisition or an alliance: “The only chance to get there in 2014 is by combining Fiat and Chrysler with a player in Asia, a region where the group is extremely weak.”
This, however, is a scenario that sources from within the company, that wish to remain anonymous, have said is very unlikely to happen.
While competitors have been building cars in China for quite some time, the Fiat group only recently finalized a deal with Guangzhou Automobile for a joint venture that will start local production at the second half of 2012.
Another issue is Fiat’s performance in the States: from March until the end of October, the 500 premium mini has sold less than half of the original target of 50,000 units.
Principal of consulting company Baum & Associates Alan Baum, comments: “I just don’t see the Fiat products being the be-all and the end-all. The 500 is cute, it’s fun, but that doesn’t sell you volume.”
On the positive side, Marchionne managed to end the conflict with the Italian unions and Fiat plans to sell 300,000 cars in Brazil and 130,000 in India by 2014, while it’s also readying a plan for a new investment in Russia.
Story References: Bloomberg News
