Tesla’s recent success is real fairytale stuff. Having been close to bankruptcy only a handful of years ago as it tried to ramp-up Model 3 production, the firm is now the world’s biggest EV company in terms of output and has frequently topped the overall vehicle sales charts in Europe. But here comes China’s BYD to spoil that happy ending.
Sales figures just in for the three months to September reveal that Tesla sold only 3,456 more EVs than BYD in Q3, moving 435,049 units to the Chinese firm’s 431,603. That’s the closest the automakers have ever come, and can be partly attributed to downtime at Tesla’s plants that caused the first dip in its output in over 12 months.
But that’s far from the only explanation. BYD had already closed the gap on Tesla through the second quarter of 2023, having lost ground in Q1. The Chinese automaker’s sales for the most recent three-month period were up 23 percent over the second quarter and it was already on track to pull level with Telsa during 2024 even if Elon Musk’s company hadn’t suffered production hold-ups.
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Those hold-ups related to preparations for production of the facelifted Model 3 Highland and Cybertruck have now accelerated BYD’s rate of progress relative to Tesla’s, and some industry analysts are confident that Tesla will be knocked into the number two spot during the final three months of this year.
“BYD will sell more fully electric passenger vehicles than Tesla in the fourth quarter,” Taylor Ogan, CEO of Snow Bull Capital, told Bloomberg.
BYD’s 431,603 figure relates only to EV sales – add in hybrid output and it shifted 822,094 vehicles, making it China’s top-selling car brand. But more interestingly, 9 percent of BYD’s output in Q3 was shipped out of China, up from 5 percent in the previous quarter.
“This will be a key volume driver next year as BYD expands its global presence with more new EVs,” suggests Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Joanne Chen.
BYD is, of course, under the beady eye of EU officials who are investigating Chinese state subsidies for EVs and how they potentially disadvantage Western carmakers. But some of Tesla’s vehicles are also built in China and will fall under the same microscope. Car industry news can often seem dry and boring, but with Musk having already declared that Tesla wants to chase volume, this battle with BYD could turn out to be a real thriller in 2024.